The murder rate in Venezuela has fallen − but both Trump and Maduro are wrong about why

According to data from the Venezuelan Ministry of Health homicide rates in Venezuel have come down in recent years. The Venezuelan Observatory of Violence confirms this trend.

President Donald Trump has even suggested that Maduro successfully reduced crime by exporting gang members to the U.S. “Crime is down in Venezuela by 67% because they’re taking their gangs and their criminals and depositing them very nicely into the United States,” he told supporters in April 2024.

The fall in homicide rates has coincided with Maduro successfully consolidating his authoritarian rule in Venezuela. And explanations of the drop in crime tend to imply that it is the result of the government co-opting and controlling gangs. Some observers have even referred to Venezuela as a “narcostate,” suggesting that drug trafficking in the country is an organized venture between top officials and criminal groups.

This narrative is at best oversimplistic, at worst outright mistruth.

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