Can AI predict who will commit crime?

Will AI be able to tell us who is going to commit crimes in the future? Once a purely fictional question, probabilistic policing is now getting factual attention.

Our yearning to know what the future holds is as persistent as our claims to have it cracked. From the Nggàm readers of crab movements in Cameroon to the online fortune tellers of Bangkok, divination remains an enduring feature in many cultures. It’s a fair bet that AI will feed our ancient appetite and reinforce our prophetic confidence.

Simulating the conditions for individual offending is not the same as calculating the likelihood of storms or energy outages. Offending is often situational and is heavily influenced by emotional, psychological and environmental elements (a bit like sport – ever wondered why Predictive AI hasn’t put bookmakers out of business yet?). Sociological factors also play a big part in rehabilitation which, in turn, affects future offending.

Predictive profiling relies on past behaviour being a good indicator of future conduct. Is this a fair assumption?

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